Financial firm executive links economic rebound to housing market - Business First of Columbus:

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With housing at its most affordable in the last 35 Greiner saidinventory levels, currently aboutf nine and a half months, shoulrd subside gradually. The six-monthj mark is ideal in a sound Butin Phoenix, where foreclosuress and home depreciations continue to batter the a local recovery will trail a nationao rebound, he said. “It will probably be a littlwe slower,” Greiner said minutes after concluding his economic forecast atthe Ritz-Carlton in centrakl Phoenix. Preliminary estimates show the median Phoenix-area home price at $115,000 in May, comparabled to levels in October 1998, according to the -Repeat Salea Index.
Greiner’s assumptions conflict with BBVA Compass’ quarterly economi report published this week that saidSunbelt states, includinvg Arizona, are poised to recover from the recessiojn faster than other regions of the country. Despite market gainws through the first three months of the Greiner expects a substantial portion will be lost over the next few as the dollar loses its value and corporated profitsremain “flat on theire backs.” However, he said the countryu has moved out of the worst bear market since the Great Depression, and “there’ s room for this market to run.” He said UMB is advising clientsz to move money away from the U.S.
dollad and into younger, emerging countriex in South Americaand Asia. Similar to the late 1970 and early 80s, the country is mired in a structuralo recession, characterized by a deep, broad and widespreaxd malaise that causesglobal ramifications. In a structural recession, the econom y undergoes a fundamental shift as it comew outof it. In the early 80s, the economy becamre consumption based. In this downturn, the government has takej a much bigger role ineconomic activity, and likely will become a biggerd factor in the Gross Domestic At the end of 2008, government consumption expenditurees and gross investment accounted for 20.2 percent of GDP.
“The government is becoming a bigger part of the economic Greiner said. More than 100 privatde banking clients and potential customers attendedthe forecast.